North Korea: Who's Controlling Those Nukes and Chemical Weapons?
After Kim Jong Il died this weekend, the South Korean military went into alert?and South Korean defense stocks rose 15 percent when the dictator's death was announced. South Korea's leaders, and investors, know that Stalinist regimes tend to have rocky transitions when their leaders die.
Perhaps the only good thing about a tyrant is that you know who is ultimately in charge?and with North Korea in particular, who has the authority to launch nuclear weapons. But the plan to pass the national control to Kim Jong Il's twenty-something son, Kim Jong Un, is fraught with peril. Despite South Korea's preparations and precautions, the most likely disaster scenario is North Korean factions tearing at each other, with military units choosing sides. This scenario becomes ghastly when considering the possible access to chemical and biological weapon stockpiles.
Look to China to keep that from happening. Its leaders are backing Kim Jon Un, but we'll see how far China's influence reaches with the military, the most important power bloc in North Korea. The newly crowned son's relationship with the military is uncertain, and with more than one of Kim Jong Il's relatives eyeing power, it's hard to say what the people with the big guns will do.
Syria: Trouble With Turkey
The story so far: The Assad regime in Syria used deadly force to quell domestic upheaval, which prompted army defectors to form the Free Syrian Army. The nexus of the antigovernment movement is the Turkey?Syria border, where tensions are flaring. The Syrian regime's snipers have been killing people fleeing across the border. A network of Free Syrian Army bases are sprinkled across the area?with safe houses on both sides of the border (Voice of America got to visit one).
If that's not bad enough, this conflict could easily spread. Syria has mobile Scud B missiles that can reach 190 miles, and as a reminder to the world, it tested one a couple of weeks ago. That puts large pieces of Iraq, Israel, and Turkey under direct threat. Plus, Turkey is a member of Nato, whose members states have been increasingly blunt about their desire to see the Assad regime go away.
And don't forget Syria's friends. Iran is the Assad family's reliable patron, and Russia is also in the mix?it stuck up for Syria, its Cold War ally, and blocked a United Nations resolution that threatened "targeted measures" against the Assad family. (Libya redux?) Even more interesting, Russian media report that Moscow delivered $300 million of supersonic antiship missiles to Syria; the deal was sealed in 2007 but deliveries were made ahead of schedule. And a battle group including the Russian missile cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov is heading to the region for a two-month deployment in the Mediterranean.
Iraq: That Didn't Take Long
The U.S. has been gone for barely a week, and already the fissures that could lead to civil collapse in Iraq are emerging.
Days after the last American troops left the nation, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki issued an arrest warrant for his own vice president, Tariq Al-Hashemi, accusing Al-Hashemi of running hit squads that targeted government officials. That's an ugly incident, but its implications are worse. The prime minister is Shia, while the vice president is Sunni. A collapse of relations between the two factions dramatically increases the chance of a civil war. Keep an eye on the Sunni Awakening's reaction to the charges.
There are also Kurds involved: Al-Hashemi fled to the north of the country, to where the Kurds have set up a semiautonomous state called Kurdistan. The Kurds have their own military, and the vacated American military bases in the region have already been flashpoints of tension.
If Iraq collapses, you can expect to see plenty of fingers pointed at the White House for not leaving a small contingent of U.S. troops in the country to help keep a lid on the feuding.
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